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Risk and Uncertainty in Emerging Markets

This three-page analysis from LMC Automotive cautions that emerging markets, which have helped boost global auto sales for several years, may be the industry's new Achilles heel.

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This three-page analysis from LMC Automotive cautions that emerging markets, which have helped boost global auto sales for several years, may be the industry's new Achilles heel.

The firm has downwardly revised some of its near-term forecasts because of "underlying macroeconomic fragilities" in emerging economies that are producing a period of unusual sales volatility. LMC adds that mature markets, such as the U.S. and western Europe, are showing firmer vehicle demand.

The analysis examines trends in Europe, Asia and South America. Its conclusion: Global sales of light vehicles will increase about 3% to more than 87 million units in 2014, but carmakers that depend heavily upon emerging markets face greater risk to growth.

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