Back to “Normal”? Not So Fast
Getting plants operating as they had isn’t going to happen overnight. And sales recovery—years
Although it seems as though there seems to be a consensus that everything is reopening and things are quickly becoming what they were, including in the vehicle production space, according to Sam Fiorani, vice president, Global Vehicle Forecasting, AutoForecast Solutions, in a recently posted piece on YouTube, getting “everything back to ‘normal’” in production is probably going to take a year or so.
The firm anticipates that North American vehicle production will be 12.1-million vehicles in 2020.
As for U.S. sales, its number is 12.9-million units. Pre-pandemic the firm had estimated sales of 16.8 million. The 2019 sales number was 17.1 million.
While there is expected growth for 2021, the U.S. sales number will be on the order of 14.8 million.
Fiorani said that he doesn’t see the number getting back to 17 million units until about 2025.
A Quick Take
Yes, the industry needs to be back up and running. But this is something that needs to be done safely, because the reopening of bars, restaurants and barbershops notwithstanding, the coronavirus is still out there even though many people would rather not think about it. (If you have any doubt about that, look at this.)
Another thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is, as Fiorani pointed out, there needs to be people to buy the new vehicles, and in order for that to happen, there needs to be jobs such that there is disposable income. Another challenge that isn’t going to be overcome in an instant.
I'm not talking about a plastic Revell model of a '57 Chevy, but a real vehicle, one that rolls off an assembly line in 1999 with another 99,999 just like it right behind. Is it possible, or is this just a fantasy of the marketing department at Elmer's?
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