| 4:29 PM EST

Germany Poised to Surpass China in EV Production

McKinsey says shift could come as early as next year
#europe #Audi #Tesla

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China is the world’s biggest producer of electric cars. But maybe not for long.

A new study by McKinsey says Germany could edge into the lead as soon as 2021 as its EV output surpasses 1.7 million vehicles.

Global Gains

McKinsey estimates that German carmakers will hike their share of global EV production to 29% by 2024 from 18% in 2019, when global EV sales totaled 2.3 million units.

There are caveats about the forecast. McKinsey ignores the impact on Germany’s output of the EV plant Tesla is building outside Berlin. The analysis also makes no attempt to guess how the coronavirus outbreak might affect the global EV market.

The otherwise bullish outlook reflects the German auto industry’s abrupt shift from diesels to electric cars as the way to satisfy future European Union emission standards. McKinsey estimates that producers must sell at least 2 million electrics in Europe next year to avoid regulatory penalties.

German carmakers plan to debut more than 100 EVs by 2024. The first wave in these all-new models from Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Volkswagen is just beginning to hit the market.

Government Help

McKinsey notes that the country’s sales of hybrids and all-electric vehicles made a “quantum leap,” fueled in large part by government subsidies worth as much as $6,700. Last year Germany surged past Norway to become Europe’s largest EV market.

The government also has pledged to bolster Germany’s network of EV charging stations. By last summer, the number of publicly accessible charging points in the country had jumped 50% in 12 months to 20,700, according to the German Assn. of Energy and Water Industries.

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