Electric vehicles will account for more than 20% of vehicle miles driven worldwide by 2030 compared with less than 1% today, predicts a report by London-based ABI Research.
The study, Smart Cities and Transportation Electrification, says the jump will be fueled by a steady increase in EV sales, which currently represent less than 2% of the market. EVs are expected to be especially popular in car-sharing fleets, which ABI notes tend to have higher utilization rates that result in more miles.
The report notes that new legislation will contribute to the trend. A proposed bill in California, for example, would mandate that EVs account for 20% of a ride-hailing service’s mileage by 2023 and 50% by 2026. Uber and Lyft recently have begun pilot programs that offer financial incentives to drivers for using electrified vehicles.
ABI also points to a growing number of cities that have passed laws in recent months that will restrict or ban piston-powered vehicles in the future. Next-generation autonomous vehicles also are expected to mainly use electric powertrains.
The report also predicts a shift toward electric-powered scooters, bicycles, motorcycles, shuttles, boats and aircraft. This will require a significant increase in the number of public charging stations and eventually a “fundamental redesign” of electric grids and a more “holistic, cross-vertical” approach to energy management, the report says.